1. The correct answer is ： 123
y = 9.82 + (4.372 x 24)
y = 114.748
forecast = 114.748 + 8.5
=123.248
=123
2.The correct answer is ： There must be no unforeseen events and The model used must fit the past data
Forecasts are made on the assumption that everything continues as in the past.
If the model being used is inappropriate, for example, if an additive model is used when the trend is changing sharply, forecasts will not be very reliable.
Provided a multiplicative model is used, the fact that the trend is increasing need not have any adverse effect on the reliability of forecasts.
Provided the seasonal variation remains the same in the future as in the past, it will not make forecasts unreliable.
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